The markets fell because …

I used to invest millions of dollars in the share market as an equities analyst.

I grew annoyed reading headlines that stated reasons for why the share market went up or down.

A share market consists of countless participants who are buying and selling from each other every day.

The only way to know definitively why a market moved is to interview every buyer and seller and understand their reasons.

Otherwise, you have no clue.

You might see information released, marked as “market-sensitive”, and then attribute it to a direction.

But you never actually know how an event impacts a market (if at all), because one piece of information can be overshadowed by another driver which you’re unaware of.

So you can’t even say that information “positively correlates” with a market’s movements.

You may think this is super finicky and wonder why I’m writing this.

It’s because every day we are exposed to events which are deemed to be significant and causally linked to certain outcomes.

But the vast majority of these claims are pure speculation, packaged as research.

We really don’t know, especially when systems are highly complex.

Be mindful and pay attention.

But always appreciate that a lot of what we consume are people reading tea leaves.

(Even this blog).

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