We are prone to overweighting the exceptions when making decisions.
Take for example, riding to work.
Let’s say you like the idea of riding as your commute. It beats sitting on public transport, it’s a lot more fun, you save money and you get fitter.
But then you wonder what happens if it rains?
The thought of being stranded in the rain or arriving to work wet does not appeal to you at all, so you promptly decide that you couldn’t possibly ride to work in case it does rain.
But did you investigate the annual rainfall in your area before you made that decision?
If you lived in a really rainy climate, then rainy days would certainly be a consideration for your commute to work.
But if it only rains a handful of days a year, then rain will simply be a minor inconvenience during your year if you chose to ride your bike.
When making a decision, identify the variables that are relevant and then weight them accordingly.
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